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Here’s how Bitcoin spot, derivatives will do, following the expiry

Bitcoin Options are holding steady, despite Friday’s expiries that amounted to over $1B. As

Source: Chainalysis

The drop in inflows will keep the supply in check, but demand needs to increase on spot exchanges. Bitcoin is being pulled out of exchange wallets, and demand is getting choked further. However, the price is not very responsive as the volatility and volume being traded is low, compared to other assets in the market like DeFi projects and Ethereum. 

Over 5000 BTC was transferred outside exchanges to unknown wallets post the expiry event in three transactions, based on Whale Alert’s updates. While 82% HODLers continue to remain profitable, they have not booked unrealized profits on exchanges. Instead, whales are moving funds outside of exchanges.

Institutional investors’ holdings have dropped by 7-8% in overall value, since their last purchase, and there seems to be a missing piece of the jigsaw here. 

Despite the bearish sentiment, shorts on BitMEX are fueling long contracts and the difference is nearly 2.5x. 

BTC Futures Expiry: Smokescreen as predicted

Source: Skew

While these inconsistencies in bearish sentiment across spot and derivatives exchanges may point to a rally back to mid-August levels, other factors like low trading volume on both spot and derivatives exchanges indicate the opposite. In fact, according to Willy Woo’s Bitcoin Volatility Chart, 60-day volatility is at 5.55, with the same dropping by over 50% since mid-August. 

The network volatility is low, and unless it recovers by upwards of 50% in the next few weeks, attaining mid-August levels on Bitcoin spot and derivatives exchanges seems very unlikely.

AMB Crypto

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